Section 05
India Macro Data
$3.9T
GDP (2024)
5th largest economy
6.5%+
GDP Growth
FY25 projected
950M+
Internet Users
2nd largest globally
$350B
E-commerce by 2030
From $70B in 2024
India's Digital Economy Context
India represents one of the world's fastest-growing digital economies, driven by smartphone penetration, affordable data, UPI adoption, and a young demographic. The e-commerce logistics sector benefits directly from rising online consumption, urbanization, and infrastructure improvements including dedicated freight corridors and PM Gati Shakti initiatives.
KEY INSIGHTS
5th Largest Economy
India's $3.9T GDP makes it the world's 5th largest economy, projected to be 3rd by 2030
Fastest Growing Major Economy
6.5%+ growth rate outpaces China, US, and EU — structural tailwinds intact
Young Demographics
Median age 28.4 years vs 38 (China), 38 (US) — consumption-led growth ahead
Urbanization Wave
36% urban today, 50% by 2050 — drives e-commerce & logistics demand
Source: IMF, World Bank, RBI
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6.5%
GDP Growth FY25E
4.5%
Inflation (CPI)
$2,500
Per Capita GDP
$700B+
FX Reserves
KEY INSIGHTS
2nd Largest Internet Market
950M+ users, adding 50M annually — only China has more internet users
Mobile-First Revolution
700M+ smartphone users; 98% of internet access via mobile devices
World's Cheapest Data
₹10/GB vs $12 (US) — Jio disruption democratized internet access
UPI Payments Explosion
₹20L Cr/month in digital payments — world's largest real-time payment system
Source: TRAI, NPCI, Industry Reports
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Source: NPCI
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KEY INSIGHTS
₹83T → ₹123-134T by CY29
Domestic retail growing from ~$1,000B (CY24) to $1,480-1,620B by CY29
Online Retail 20-25% CAGR
Online share rising from ~7% (CY24) to 12-13% (CY29) — fastest growing channel
Organized B&M 16-20% CAGR
Brick & mortar organized retail growing from ~14% to 20-21% share
Unorganized Declining
Unorganized share declining from ~79% (CY24) to 65-68% as retail formalizes
Source: Redseer Research and Analysis
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KEY INSIGHTS
₹5.8T Online GMV (CY24)
~$70B growing at 20-25% CAGR to reach ₹14.5-17.8T ($175-214B) by CY29
India 7% vs China 34%
Online penetration significantly below China (34%) and USA (17%) — massive headroom
3x Growth in 5 Years
From ₹1.8T (CY19) to ₹5.8T (CY24) — 25% CAGR in last 5 years
Source: National Bureau of Statistics China, USA Gov Census, Redseer Research and Analysis
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Source: National Bureau of Statistics China, USA Gov Census, Redseer Research
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| Category | CY19 Share | CY24 Share | CAGR (CY19-24) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mobiles | ~39% | ~23% | ~11% |
| Fashion | ~21% | ~26% | ~29% |
| Electronics | ~19% | ~16% | ~19% |
| Grocery | ~7% | ~16% | ~52% |
| Beauty & Personal Care | ~6% | ~6% | ~33% |
| Home & Furniture | - | ~6% | ~33% |
| Others | - | ~7% | ~25% |
Source: Redseer Research and Analysis. Note: Grocery includes Quick Commerce
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KEY INSIGHTS
Marketplaces Dominate
₹4.9-5.4T GMV ($59-65B) — largest segment in India's e-commerce ecosystem
Direct Commerce ~11%
₹588-740B GMV ($7-9B) — early-stage adoption with high growth potential
Large Marketplaces
Data-driven personalization, comprehensive seller support including warehousing & payments
D2C Brands Rising
Gen Z demand for niche, personalized & sustainable products driving direct commerce
Source: Redseer Research and Analysis
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| Model | GMV (₹T / $B) | Share | Key Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Marketplaces | ₹4.0-4.5T ($48-54B) | ~70% | GMV >$1B, captive logistics, data-driven personalization |
| Other Marketplaces | ₹0.9-1.0T ($11-12B) | ~19% | GMV <$1B, niche products, curated selections, community-driven |
| New-Age D2C Brands | ₹350-450B ($4-5B) | ~7% | Brand websites, personalized products, Gen Z focused |
| Traditional Brand.com | ₹238-290B ($3-4B) | ~4% | Offline-first brands transitioning to omnichannel |
Source: Redseer Research and Analysis
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Organized Retail Transition
21% organized (CY24) → 32-34% (CY29); offline-first brands adopting omnichannel strategies
Grocery & Fashion Leading
Grocery at 52% CAGR, Fashion at 29% — convenience-led purchases driving online adoption
Quick Commerce Rising
High frequency, low AOV creating habit-forming behavior; now servicing 50+ cities
MSME Formalization
As MSMEs scale, they transition to organized retail, driving logistics demand
KEY INSIGHTS
₹100L Cr Gati Shakti
Multi-modal connectivity initiative to transform logistics infrastructure
14% → 8% Target
National Logistics Policy aims to reduce logistics cost to global standards by 2030
2,800 km Freight Corridors
Dedicated freight corridors reducing transit time & improving efficiency
1.5L+ km Highways
Bharatmala, Sagarmala expanding road & port connectivity nationwide
Source: Ministry of Commerce, NHAI
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PM Gati Shakti
Multi-modal connectivity for seamless logistics across road, rail, air, and waterways
National Logistics Policy
Target to reduce logistics cost from 14% to 8% of GDP by 2030
ONDC
Open Network for Digital Commerce - democratizing e-commerce
Make in India
Manufacturing push driving industrial logistics demand
Relevance to Shiprocket
India's macro tailwinds directly benefit Shiprocket: rising e-commerce penetration drives shipping volumes, Tier 2/3 expansion requires aggregated logistics solutions, D2C brand proliferation creates demand for merchant-focused platforms, and infrastructure improvements reduce delivery times and costs. The company is positioned at the intersection of these structural growth drivers.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Macro data sourced from public reports and may be subject to revisions.